Syria

The investigation led by Detlev Mehlis of the United Nations linked senior Syrian officials to the February 14 assassination of Rafik Hariri, former Prime Minister of Lebanon. The UN Security Council might consider international sanctions on the Ba'ath regime in Damascus. Long term American goals are intended to facilitate an "Arab glasnost", and greater levels of pluralism, democracy and receptivity to western geo-strategic interests. This said, a veto on UN sanctions by Russia or China can not be ruled out.

The United States had often condemned Syria for its support of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, and the insurgents in Iraq. Iran and Syria have had close ties. The 30 year Syrian military presence in Lebanon united the Americans and French in a rare moment of solidarity to press for a Syrian disengagement. 14,000 Syrian troops were forced to withdraw from Lebanon in the aftermath of the Hariri assassination. Syria is no longer central to the decisions that affect the Middle East. It is surrounded by pro-western states i.e. Turkey to its north, Iraq to its east, Jordan and Israel to its south, and Lebanon to its west.

However, an increasingly isolated Syria might not be good. Economic stagnation, the return of 250,000 Syrian workers deported from Lebanon and increased unemployment can destabilize the country. The ruling Ba'ath party elite and much of the military top command belong to the Alawite minority, a "heretic" offshoot of the Shi'ite sect, that constitute 15% of the Syrian population. The Alawites dominate one province i.e. Latakia. Sections of the 70% Sunni Arab majority are attracted to the Islamic fundamentalism represented by the Muslim Brotherhood. The latter attempted to assassinate Hafez al-Assad in 1980 and then rose in revolt in 1982. The Ba'ath administration crushed the insurrection with unsurpassed brutality in Hamah leading to the death of 10,000 persons. Large parts of the city were bull dozed to terrify future opponents. But, the Muslim Brotherhood remains influential and demanded free elections in April, 2005. The 5% Kurd minority could press for increased autonomy in the region they dominate. A senior Kurdish leader was killed in May, 2005 after calling for "regime change".

The increasing isolation of the Ba'ath regime in Damascus could lead to one of two scenarios. The Alawite establishment in the military and the Ba'ath party could jettison the leadership of Bashar al-Assad to regain control. The other prospect would be one of a resurgent Muslim Brotherhood which would destabilize Syria. A stalemate in Syria would not be in the international community's interest. Syria, with a land area of 71,500 square miles and a population of 18 million, should not be allowed to implode.