Via Times of India, India a superpower by 2030: poll
India will be a superpower in the next 25 years and Bollywood may one day surpass Hollywood as the capital of the world entertainment industry. This might seem like a pipe dream, but these are the answers thrown up by a Times-CNN poll conducted in four metros.
The poll, conducted by market research firm TNS, was done in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai. Seventy-five per cent of the respondents feel India could be the next superpower.
Also, with India's GDP rivaling that of China, its firm commitment to democracy and a rapidly-growing rich and middle class, India's future superpower status is assured, they feel. Mumbaikars (84 per cent) are more optimistic about the future. Delhi (75 per cent), Chennai (70 per cent) and Kolkata (68 per cent) are not so gung-ho.
To this blogger, this kind of widespread hyper-confidence is a two-edged sword. Confidence is a good thing and propels a society forward but the great expectations this sets up, most likely, will never be realized as anticipated -- this is a sure recipe for despair in the years to come.
In business, we are advised to under-promise but over-deliver. Here, it seems, India's leaders -- politicians, media, business-folk, academia, celebrities -- have all thrown caution to the winds and have (literally) promised the moon to our young. Maybe these promises will come true. But, chances are, that it'll be impossible to do enough consistent with the euphoric state India is in now.
Great depressions follow when euphoria's bubble bursts and reality sets in. Risk aversion becomes the norm and, absent hope about the future, consumption and investment plummet.
In capital markets, we are advised to be very suspicious of ideas that everyone has come to believe in. At least, betting along with such ideas is a fools game since the best possible future scenario is priced into assets. When this happens, one must take profits and run. For instance early 2000 -- when everyone was convinced the internet is the future master of the universe -- was the best time to take profits in cyber-equities.
This poll is very sobering to us. We think this implies India has peaked -- its stock market, its property market, its consumer market all are likely at bubble highs. Every market touched by the urban young has likely already priced in the absolute best case scenario.
Watch out everybody. Sheer precipice ahead.
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