So, what the General wants, quite simply, in exchange for turning off the terror tap, is joint-soveriegnty over combined-Kashmir. The proxy-war is his leverage, and he's not letting go of it for free (else, his colleagues would argue, what was the point of the 20-year jihad?). It does make sense, in a perverse way, from the General's point of view.
What does India want? For lack of visibility, we'll speculate, that the Indian side would settle for converting LoC into the border, with some soft border controls in Kashmir, with Indian sovereignty this side of LoC, and autonomy within the Indian constitution. So, what leverage does India have to get what it wants? India is not going to get what it wants by gently pleading to the General's conscience - this is a tough game of realpolitik and its going to have to play hardball.
The key is to acquire a few trump cards that India can then barter away. India needs to convince the General that if he doesn't take what is offered, the alternative would be much worse. India needs to create circumstances that make the current offer "an offer he can't refuse". Here's a few ideas from the outside - hopefully the babus have better ideas.
- India should refuse to negotiate with the untrustworthy Musharraf. Reject his absurd proposals outright, refuse to negotiate with a gun to our heads, highlight his long resume of deception, and say we'll wait till we get a credible partner in peace. Meanwhile, move unilaterally, Ariel Sharon style, to implement the final solution as we see fit. (see below).
- Launch a massive Marshall-plan for Kashmir's development. The people there have suffered enough, and its time for redevelopment. This has to be investment, more than aid. Create special economic zones, IT parks, highways, offer tax holidays. Get the Indian private sector into the act.
- Move aggressively to assist those affected by the recent earthquake on the Indian side. While the Pakistani government has refused Indian aid, there should be serious infusion of cash and support through informal channels. Let the people realize that in their time of need, the self-absorbed Pakistani military was sorely lacking.
- Stop the cricket matches, exciting as the games may be. US wouldn't send a soccer team to Saddam's Iraq or Kim's Korea. This is not to suggest that the fight is with Pakistani people - quite the contrary, they are our brothers with a few thousand years of shared culture. The problem is with the half-century old military regime whose ideology and very origins are opposed to everything good about India. Playing cricket only serves to legitimize the regime.
- The jihadi war needs to be fought in their backyard, not ours. Indian intelligence agencies should be tasked with Israeli-style neutralization of jihadi leaders who roam freely in Pakistan. They've spilt enough blood, and these criminals must be stopped, by any means necessary. This also weakens Pakistani leverage.
- Publicly support pro-democracy movements in Pakistan, be it at the national or state level. Pooh-pooh the charade of a democracy in today's Pakistan.
- De-construction of the Pakistani military machine should be India's twenty-year project. There is no permanent peace without this. Refuse to buy arms from those that sell to Pakistan. Outspend Pakistan till they give up. Setup offensive weapons that can completely annihilate the Pakistani armed forces infrastructure, not the country, in a few minutes of war.
- Publicly hold Pakistani feet to the fire for the non-proliferation violations. Shame US and UK into doing the same. The current problems with Iran and N Korea create an awkward situation for those that would brush this under the rug for other private deals.
- Lobby the US that Musharraf is not the solution to the Al Qaeda problem, but part of the problem. Some articles suggest its already happening - India could accelerate the tipping point.
- Its a stretch, but can RAW assist the CIA in locating OBL? Indian agents should find it easier to blend into the local society on the Pak/Afghan border than American agents. This will fix the US obsession with OBL and its consequent dependence on Pakistan.