Saturday, June 25, 2005

The Coming Confrontation

Stratfor has the following to say about the Maoist attacks in Bihar.

Approximately 400 Nepalese and Indian militants jointly attacked three government offices in the Indian state of Bihar on June 24, leaving 21 people dead. This joint operation between Indian and Nepalese rebels marks a substantial shift in Maoist strategy and likely results from splintering within the Nepalese Maoist rebel camp. As the Maoist militancy has now demonstrably spilled across Nepal's porous border into India, Beijing and Islamabad will becoming increasingly nervous as India finds a better excuse for direct action in Nepal aimed at containing the Maoist threat.

Should India seize the opportunity to send troops into Nepal to quell the Maoist insurgency, China and Pakistan will not remain quiet. Any bold moves by New Delhi will undoubtedly create concerns within Beijing and Islamabad, which traditionally fear India's military prowess. As things start to heat up on the subcontinent and New Delhi begins hinting at sending forces to Nepal, Islamabad and Beijing will each assert claims to defend their Nepalese neighbor as a strategy to contain India.

2 comments:

Nitin said...

The guys in Beijing and Rawalpindi need not get excited. The Indian government is not taking this seriously.

Primary Red said...

Regretfully, this is true.

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