United Nations

On Thursday, a blue-ribbon panel will offer Two Proposals for UN Security Council Reform.

It is worthwhile asking at this stage what purpose the UN really serves. Being long-time cynics about the role of the UN, we have been struck by the fawning for the UN in Indian media.

Two Indian Express opinion-essays buck this trend. This is why they are important.

Does the UN matter?

How to deal with the gang in New York

Update: After reviewing the blue-ribbon proposals, The Statesman concludes India shortchanged in UN overhaul report

This should neither come as a surprise nor does it matter very much in the real world.

Brazil's Bomb -- with Indian help?

Stratfor reports that Brazil has secured IAEA approval to enrich uranium. It speculates that with foreign help, including from India, Brazil will build the bomb within a decade.

Brazil's government received approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency to produce enriched uranium. President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva insists the country's revived nuclear development programs will be used for only peaceful purposes, with substantial technological assistance from strategic partners such as Russia, China and India. However, within a decade Brazil likely will try to build a nuclear weapon.

Counter-terrorism may be the flavor of the day, but great-power rivalries remain the principal drivers of long-term geopolitics. These battles are always best fought far from home -- in this case in America's back yard. Our neighborhood-rival Pakistan is not oblivious to this. Not surprisigly Musharraf meets Brazil president today.

Pakistan's Hamid Gul

UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave (Commentary: Gulled by Gul) quotes Pakistani (ex) General Hamid Gul, who once ran the infamous ISI, and currently serves as the "strategic adviser" to the country's six-party Islamist alliance (MMA) -- which, incidentally, has been allied with General Musharraf -- as follows:

"The leadership vacuum created by the sad demise of (Palestinian) President (Yasser) Arafat can only be filled by Osama Bin Laden and (Taliban leader) Mullah (Mohammad) Omar, the real leaders that are the only dedicated individuals with the mass support of the Muslim world."

How can India even contemplate a peace process with a nation where the likes of General Gul are legion? See our previous thinking on this subject here: Kashmir

Bharateeya Blog Mela

Last week's Bharateeya Blog Mela is up at Another Blog in the Wall which mentions our perspective on post-election Indo-US relationship.

Also, Ashish is hosting this week's Carnival of the Vanities . Please nominate interesting posts that merit inclusion there.

Patriot Missiles

This weekend we learned via Jawed Naqvi in Dawn (Big US arms offer for India) that US has offered India Patriot Missiles (along with F16 fighter jets and P3C Orion Surveillance Planes) to balance their potentially supplying Pakistan with F16s.

Sounds intriguing. Indian defence planners have apparently even indicated interest in procuring the Patriot Missiles.

In this context, we are reminded of this February 2004 story on CBS' 60 Minutes (The Patriot Flawed?), which questioned the effectiveness of Patriot Missiles. We hope the issues raised here will be fully investigated before India agrees to purchase this missile system. We strongly favor Indo-US defence cooperation, but not a blind purchase of possibly ineffective military systems.

Relevant excerpts follow:

(Former Congressional investigator) Joseph Cirincione says the Army has known the Patriot had serious problems since at least 1991, when Congress appointed him to lead an investigation of the Patriot's performance in the first Gulf War, a performance that had looked spectacular on network news programs.

But it turns out, that wasn’t true. Almost none of the Patriots had worked. Some of them had failed to hit the incoming Scuds. Some had shot at missiles that didn't even exist. But most of them still exploded in the sky, leading everyone to believe they'd scored a kill, when in fact they hadn’t. “The best evidence that we found supports between two and four intercepts out of 44,” says Cirincione. “About a 10 percent success rate.” Cirincione said the Army responded angrily to his findings: “The Army insisted that they knew they had some problems with the Patriot, but it didn't serve any purpose to make these public. We would just be aiding the enemy. And that they would take care of it in the course of normal product improvement.”

Pogrom in Gujarat

Indian Express is running a series of investigative stories on who knew what and when about the pogrom in Gujarat. This is based on an analysis of telephone records. An absolute must-read.

Top cops knew ex-Cong MP Ehsan Jafri was burning, his friend had sent out SOS

To us the issue goes beyond the horrific crimes outlined above. This is fundamentally about the nature of Indian citizenship and that of Indian institutions. If a citizen -- an ex-Member of Parliament at that -- can be lynched so brazenly, apparently with the knowledge of the police, how does any other citizen know he/she is safe?

Some may take comfort in the fact that the victims were minorities, and that, mercifully, they aren't. This would be a cynical and profoundly incorrect interpretation of the issue. First, regardless of their minority status, India's Muslims were born here, their parents and grandparents were born here, and their ancestors lived, died and are buried in India's earth. This alone gives them an equal citizenship -- and a right to equal protections -- as any other Indian. Second, we are all minorities in one way or the other -- some based on caste, others on language, and the rest in countless other ways.

Can we be lynched tomorrow for being, say, Brahmins, or Oriya speakers, or NRIs? Would Indians not sharing our specific minority attribute be morally justified in looking away? Can our police ignore SOS calls from us because they speak Tamil and we Bengali? Or because we have lived in New York and they all their life in New Delhi? Where does this madness stop?

Kashmir

Khalid Hassan discusses India's attitude towards Kashmir in this week's Friday Times http://www.thefridaytimes.com/ (The Kashmir Mirage).

In this discussion, he quotes from a August 25th, 1952 letter from Pt. Nehru to Sheikh Abdullah:

We are superior to Pakistan in military and industrial power. But that superiority is not so great as to produce results quickly in war or by fear of war. Therefore, our national interest demands that we should adopt a peaceful policy towards Pakistan and, at the same time, add to our strength. Strength ultimately comes not from defence forces, but the industrial and economic background behind them. As we grow in strength, and we are likely to do so, Pakistan will feel less and less inclined to threaten or harass us, and a time will come when, through sheer force of circumstances, it will be in a mood to accept a settlement which we consider fair, whether in Kashmir or elsewhere.

His sentiments are obviously widely shared -- today, 52 years later.

In our view, India is not merely superior to Pakistan in military and industrial power, it is also superior as a political system. While the former allow us to dictate a solution, it is the latter that gives us the moral basis to do so.

Global Commerce

The Ranbaxy vs. Pfizer battle is worth watching.

http://www.theday.com/eng/web/news/re.aspx?re=F37D48D0-51F2-4AE9-A843-D8412975E0AF

Pfizer Inc. said Tuesday that it planned to vigorously defend its best-selling Lipitor drug against claims by an Indian generic-drug manufacturer that it can market its own version of the cholesterol-lowering medication.

Pfizer will square off against Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. next Tuesday in federal district court in Delaware, where Ranbaxy's attorneys will challenge Pfizer's patents on Lipitor, the world's top-selling drug, which generated sales of more than $9 billion this past year.

Pfizer had filed legal briefs seeking to dismiss the suit but was denied. The case is a significant one for Pfizer because of the huge success of Lipitor, the drug of choice among many of the world's physicians to lower cholesterol.

The Wall Street Journal said in a story in Tuesday's edition that analysts have called the Pfizer challenge by the generic drugmaker a long shot, but that if it prevailed it would send shock waves throughout the pharmaceutical industry.

United Nations

National Review to Kofi Annan: You're fired !!

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_11_24_corner-archive.asp#046631

The story is here: http://www.nationalreview.com/issue/editors200411240800.asp

A UN-insider friend of this blog describes some of what's been happening under Mr. Annan's watch as real nasty creepy stuff. That's the understatement of the year.

See Michelle Malkin's blog for more details.

http://michellemalkin.com/archives/000874.htm

The sooner Mr. Annan goes, the better.

Environment

From AnarCapLib, here is an interesting discussion of environment issues:

'Sustainable development is nonsense'

Here, Leon Louw, an African libertarian says the following to Sauvik Chakraverti:

What is your view on 'sustainable development'?

It is nonsense. The world 'sustainable' has no intelligible meaning. Sustainable for how long and for whom, we are never told. Development is sustainable. What is not is the absence of development. Without development, people will, in fact, starve and the environment will be destroyed. The most developed countries are the ones with the cleanest air, the cleanest rivers, the least human suffering, the best conservation of nature, and the least endangered species.

We could not agree more. The conventional wisdom of leftist environmental activists needs to be directly challenged and defeated.

Culture

G. Vimalah Nair, a politician of the MIC -- Malaysian Indian Congress -- has accused Indian cinema of encouraging many in the Malaysian-Indian community to take to alcohol, or worse to commit suicide!!!

Two points need to be made here. First, India's principal "soft power" export appears to be C-grade cinema -- this is hardly the makings of a great power. Second, to the extent our cinema represents our culture overseas, what does it say about us if it is driving people to kill themselves?

United Nations

Instapudit's Glenn Reynolds talks up the idea of replacing Kofi Annan with Vaclav Havel.

http://instapundit.com/archives/019418.php

Vaclav Havel is this year's winner of the Gandhi Peace Prize.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/400716.cms

We have long endorsed the idea of Bill Clinton for Secretary General for his political skills and pragmatism. We are, however, intrigued by the idea of Mr. Havel for this position.

China

Rand's Charles Wolf Jr. wrote the following in the Asian Wall Street Journal (http://www.rand.org/commentary/070704AWSJ.html). This is a sobering reality check for the China bulls out there.

Among the major economic problems confronting China, two are particularly difficult.

The problem that has lately received most attention and concern is actually the less difficult of the two. The second is not only more difficult, but also has been largely ignored in public discussion.

The easier problem is the so-called "overheated" Chinese economy, and the worry that the "bubble" may burst with serious consequences for Asia and the world economy.

The problem that is more difficult to resolve springs from a dilemma presented by two economic objectives both of which are of crucial importance for China's future: sustaining a high rate of economic growth and also generating ample job opportunities for large numbers of unemployed and underemployed workers. For political and social as well as economic reasons achieving a high rate of job creation is no less important than is sustaining a high rate of GDP growth.

Although the two objectives are usually viewed as compatible and even mutually reinforcing, there is a fundamental tension between them. This tension arises because of the two-sided effects of rising labor productivity ...

.. while China's economy was growing at the highest annual growth rate, 7.8%, of any of the world's principal economies, its increase in employment was only 1% annually.

Hip Hinglish

From the Christian Science Monitor:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1123/p01s03-wosc.html

The mix of Hindi and English is the language of the street and the college campus, and its sound sets many parents' teeth on edge. It's a bridge between two cultures that has become an island of its own, a distinct hybrid culture for people who aspire to make it rich abroad without sacrificing the sassiness of the mother tongue. And it may soon claim more native speakers worldwide than English.

Indeed, David Crystal, a British linguist at the University of Wales, recently projected that at about 350 million, the world's Hinglish speakers may soon outnumber native English speakers.

India Terror Warning

Today, US Embassy in India warned of possible terror threats both in Delhi and Mumbai. The US consulate in Mumbai has been closed.

Stratfor analyzes this action thus:

The U.S. Embassy in India issued a statement saying the U.S. Consulate General in Mumbai would be closed Nov. 23 after threats of possible attacks. The warning lacked specifics, and considering that most militant activity in India has been away from centers of U.S. interests, the closure and warning are likely a precautionary, proactive measure.

http://www.stratfor.com/index.neo?page=center&storyId=239836

This is likely related to the arrival of Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz in Delhi -- a "good" time to draw attention from a terrorist point of view.

Pogrom in Gujarat

Indian Express has been tracking cell-phone records of key BJP politicians and police officers during the Gujarat pogrom. The results are stunning -- if hardly surprising.

These politicians and police officers were apparently in close, and frequent, contact with mob leaders -- even as the mobs they led were torching entire communities. They have blood on their hands.

In its lead editorial today, Indian Express asks why is it that Gujarat police has not undertaken the exercise the newspaper has?

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=59392

Neo-conservatism

Global neo-conservatism is based on three pillars:

1. The movement's core values are freedom and equality -- neo-conservatives seek an equilibrium where both values co-exist without diminishing the other

- Freedom to suppress equality (e.g. Afghanistan under Taliban) is unacceptable

- Equality that curtails freedom (e.g. Cambodia under Khmer Rouge) is unacceptable

http://secular-right.blogspot.com/2004/11/neo-conservatism.html

2. The movement aspires to shape the world around its values

- These values have moral roots and universal meaning

- Political and social systems that do not share these values are a threat

http://secular-right.blogspot.com/2004/11/democracy.html

3. The movement advocates assertive diplomacy where possible, and force where necessary, for shaping the world around its values

- Soviet Union was brought down principally through assertive diplomacy

- Baathist Iraq was brought down through force

http://www.newamericancentury.org/

The Shia Bomb

Christian Science Monitor discusses Iran's nuclear aspirations:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1123/p01s01-usfp.html

One paragraph caught our eye:

Some experts hold out the hope that Iran, if it became a nuclear power, could yet evolve in somewhat the same way India has- from a one-time international agitator to a nuclear power taking its position seriously and demonstrating stronger interests in regional stability.

Meanwhile, Israeli website Debkafile discusses how, if at all, US or Israel might try to destroy Iran's capabilities.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=940

We hope Iran keeps its capabilities recessed -- if not, a nuclear Tehran would give Pakistan one more rationale to maintain/augment its nuclear capability. This cannot be good for India -- or the world.

United Nations

The Economist has a good preview of the upcoming report on UN reform. They title the article "Fighting for Survival".

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3398746

We think the UN is an unwieldy and amoral anachronism that's best disbanded. Short of that, radical reform is the only way to salvage what little credibility it has left.

Energy and Environment

Delhi-based Liberty Institute (a favorite of ours) offers this paper by Shreekant Gupta on market based approaches to reduce green house gases.

http://www.libertyindia.org/pdfs/shreekant_gupta_climate.pdf

Resources for the Future, a credible American Think Tank, has now published a book spelling out similar policy options on energy and environment.

The book is reviewed by Gregg Easterbrook in The New Republic.

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=easterbrook112204

First, here is a Mr. Easterbrook briefly describing the Think Tank and why it is credible:

The think tank was founded in 1952 by the Ford Foundation, which charged it with warning the world about the coming exhaustion of petroleum and other primary resources. Instead Resources for the Future researchers concluded there was plenty of everything, and swam against the 1960s doomsday-chic tide by saying so.

Then the organization got interested in improved environmental protection using market-based ideas. Its triumph was the 1991 Clean Air Act revisions that created an allowance-trading program for acid rain reduction. Since 1991 acid rain has declined spectacularly--that's why you never hear about it anymore--and the trading system designed by Resources for the Future is the reason.

With this history, here are their key recommendations:

1. Higher taxes on gasoline or on any carbon-containing (fossil) fuel

2. Tradable higher federal miles-per-gallon standards on vehicles

3. A carbon-allowance trading system modeled on the acid-rain trading system